2022: How government transfer reliance in Smyth County has changed since 1970

2022: How government transfer reliance in Smyth County has changed since 1970
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group — Official Website
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In 2022, government transfers made up 37% of total income in Smyth County, Virginia—an alarming 26.4% surge from 10.6% in 1970 and a 6.4% increase from 2012’s 30.6%. This marks the 18th largest increase among all Virginia counties over the past decade, according to information from the Economic Innovation Group.

On a per capita basis, this translates to $16,428 per resident in 2022, up from $11,457 in 2012 and $1,670 in 1970, ranking Smyth County as the 21st fastest-growing in per capita government transfers among Virginia counties over the past 10 years.

Meanwhile, Smyth County had the 16th largest share of income derived from government transfers, making it one of the largest dependent counties in the state.

Among Virginia’s counties, Dickenson County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 9.8% from 38.9% in 2012 to 48.7% in 2022, and up 32.6 percentage points from just 16.1% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Dickenson County jumped from $13,416 in 2012 to $19,994 in 2022, contrasting to the $2,494 recorded in 1970.

For comparison, the statewide average was 13.3% in 2022, showing a lower dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $10,014 per resident, compared to $11,542 nationwide.

Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).

In Smyth County, reliance on government transfers was just 10.6% (or $1,670 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to a total of 26.4% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by an aging population increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.

In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Smyth County included:

  • Social Security: $5,418 per capita (33% of total transfers)
  • Medicare: $3,799 per capita (23.1% of total transfers)
  • Medicaid: $4,152 per capita (25.3% of total transfers)
  • Income Maintenance Programs: $1,901 per capita (11.6% of total transfers)

With 22.9% of the population aged 65 and older, Smyth County has a significant demand for Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.

Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans’ income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide.

According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.

Government Transfer Trends by County in Virginia, 2022
County Dependency on Transfers (%) Change Since 2012 Change Since 1970 Per Capita Amount (2022) Per Capita Since 2012 Per Capita Since 1970
Dickenson County 48.7% +9.8% +32.6% $19,994 $6,578 $17,500
Lee County 47% +10.6% +23.7% $18,105 $6,220 $15,346
Buchanan County 44.7% +9.8% +34.1% $20,234 $6,457 $18,610
Russell County 43% +10.6% +30% $17,290 $5,372 $15,457
Scott County 41.8% +8.2% +30.9% $16,552 $4,781 $14,969
Brunswick County 41.1% +7.8% +32.5% $16,903 $5,593 $15,600
Patrick County 39.5% +6.8% +30.2% $15,903 $4,687 $14,428
Tazewell County 39.3% +10.3% +26.6% $17,291 $5,314 $15,078
Sussex County 38.2% +9.6% +29.6% $14,413 $4,912 $13,072
Grayson County 38.1% +3.8% +25.3% $14,843 $3,178 $13,115
Dinwiddie County 37.9% +8.7% +29.7% $17,388 $4,644 $15,931
Halifax County 37.7% +7.1% +28.5% $16,787 $5,512 $15,308
Charlotte County 37.5% +5.4% +28.3% $16,976 $5,662 $15,577
Mecklenburg County 37.4% +6.4% +28.8% $17,040 $5,110 $15,727
Nottoway County 37.3% +4% +27.5% $16,770 $4,941 $15,004
Smyth County 37% +6.4% +26.4% $16,428 $4,972 $14,758
Buckingham County 36.5% +9.3% +25.4% $13,823 $5,384 $12,425
Lunenburg County 35.7% +5.6% +25.6% $13,916 $3,794 $12,384
Bland County 35.5% +7.8% +23% $15,123 $4,846 $13,490
Prince Edward County 35.2% +7.4% +26.5% $13,925 $5,021 $12,503
Wythe County 34.2% +4.6% +23.2% $15,223 $4,376 $13,414
Amherst County 32.4% +7.4% +24.4% $14,496 $4,917 $13,237
Essex County 32% +6.8% +21.5% $16,528 $5,525 $14,885
Giles County 31.3% +4.8% +20.3% $15,487 $4,627 $13,610
Northampton County 30.9% +4.3% +18.2% $19,870 $7,147 $17,929
Appomattox County 30.8% +4.7% +21.2% $14,139 $4,023 $12,430
Northumberland County 30.7% +4.6% +17.3% $18,848 $5,509 $16,632
Pulaski County 30.4% +3.3% +22% $14,611 $3,506 $13,106
Richmond County 30% +4.4% +19.1% $12,814 $3,487 $10,981
Middlesex County 29.7% +5.6% +14.1% $17,882 $5,517 $15,351
Westmoreland County 29.3% +5.2% +17.8% $14,822 $4,158 $12,990
Accomack County 29.1% +3.5% +17.5% $15,776 $4,721 $13,904
Highland County 29% +4.4% +15.1% $14,651 $3,471 $12,665
Cumberland County 28.9% +2.4% +18% $13,408 $3,460 $11,794
Craig County 28.8% +4.3% +17.1% $13,628 $3,789 $11,768
Floyd County 28.7% +5% +18% $14,012 $4,662 $12,283
Surry County 28.3% +6.7% +18.8% $14,837 $5,545 $13,423
Page County 28.2% +2.9% +17.7% $13,840 $3,962 $11,998
Nelson County 26.9% +5.4% +15.1% $17,399 $6,406 $15,645
Rockbridge County 26.7% +3.7% +17.7% $12,931 $3,424 $11,420
Franklin County 26.4% +3.2% +18.1% $13,880 $4,055 $12,506
King and Queen County 26.1% +3.6% +16.9% $14,439 $4,813 $12,963
Amelia County 25.8% +3.8% +16.2% $13,668 $4,108 $12,174
Lancaster County 25.6% +1.4% +13.5% $18,546 $4,476 $16,304
Charles City County 25.5% +4.8% +17.9% $14,560 $5,146 $13,427
Mathews County 25.3% +5.6% +11.7% $17,198 $5,728 $14,645
Bedford County 23.6% +4.5% +15% $12,940 $3,787 $11,361
Louisa County 23.6% +4.7% +14.3% $11,963 $3,538 $10,394
Augusta County 23.4% +2.9% +17.2% $12,368 $3,123 $11,093
Bath County 22.9% +3.4% +10.6% $17,143 $5,690 $15,105
Orange County 22.9% +4.2% +15.2% $13,473 $3,789 $11,776
Caroline County 22.6% +4.1% +15.1% $11,660 $3,444 $10,354
Shenandoah County 22.3% +1.9% +13.2% $12,657 $3,643 $10,963
Gloucester County 22.2% +5.6% +15.1% $12,743 $4,149 $11,112
Botetourt County 21.5% +4.6% +12% $12,819 $3,999 $11,077
Greene County 20.6% +4.5% +11.3% $10,623 $3,436 $9,274
King William County 20.5% +4.1% +13.5% $11,196 $3,290 $9,777
Madison County 20.4% +3.7% +11.3% $11,540 $3,310 $9,947
Fluvanna County 20.3% +3.6% +11.3% $10,816 $3,247 $9,327
Warren County 19.9% +4.2% +11.3% $11,183 $3,537 $9,348
Isle of Wight County 19.5% +4.4% +13.4% $12,467 $3,550 $11,222
Culpeper County 19.4% +4.4% +11.5% $10,828 $3,379 $9,310
Chesterfield County 15.9% +3.7% +11.6% $10,184 $3,341 $9,059
Clarke County 14.8% +3.6% +8% $11,532 $4,247 $9,946
King George County 14.8% +4.5% +11.3% $9,471 $3,470 $8,491
Rappahannock County 14.8% +2% +6.2% $11,764 $3,238 $10,178
Powhatan County 14.5% +1.7% +7.2% $9,860 $2,968 $8,684
Hanover County 14.2% +2.4% +9.4% $10,262 $3,234 $9,118
Stafford County 13.9% +4.8% +10.3% $9,052 $3,516 $8,186
Henrico County 13.5% +2.4% +10.3% $10,380 $3,269 $9,521
Prince William County 12% +4% +9.6% $7,645 $2,901 $6,994
Fauquier County 11.5% +2.9% +6.3% $9,494 $3,073 $8,201
New Kent County 10.9% +1% +3.7% $11,160 $3,770 $9,750
Goochland County 9.8% +0.6% +2.9% $11,441 $2,241 $10,160
Fairfax County 7.6% +1.9% +5.7% $7,726 $2,675 $7,026
Loudoun County 5.7% +1.6% +1.9% $5,534 $2,080 $4,426
Arlington County 5.4% +1.4% +2.7% $6,090 $1,985 $4,872


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